Il Messaggiere - Could abortion hold the keys to the White House for Kamala Harris?

Abortion has never been so close to the heart of an American presidential election, but this is the first to be held after access to the procedure was banned or restricted across much of the country following a landmark Supreme Court ruling.

Ten states are holding referendums on the issue, and those questions will appear on the same ballots used to cast presidential votes.

The outcome could have profound implications, with the potential for restrictions affecting millions of women to be overturned. But Democrats also hope the issue will mobilize a broader swath of the electorate in their favor.

"Mobilization is typically what determines the outcome of an election," Samara Klar, a professor of political science at the University of Arizona, told AFP, noting that women voters in states where abortion was under threat helped the Democratic Party exceed expectations in the 2022 midterms.

Harris has made abortion a central theme of her campaign, repeatedly linking her opponent, former president Donald Trump, to tragic stories, such as women forced to cross state lines to terminate their life-threatening pregnancies.

"This is a health care crisis, and Donald Trump is the architect," the vice president said at a recent campaign stop in Georgia, after it was revealed a woman died when medical care was delayed due to the state's restrictive abortion law.

During his term, Trump reshaped the Supreme Court, which in 2022 left the states to decide their own abortion policies by overturning Roe v. Wade -- and thus dismantling five decades of precedent protecting the procedure nationwide.

The Republican has consistently touted his role in this decision, yet he denies Democratic claims that he plans to pursue a national ban on abortion, despite pressure from conservative scholars and activists for such an outcome.

In the wake of the Roe decision, Democrats have positioned themselves as the party of reproductive rights, with polls indicating that a majority of Americans support access to abortion.

"They want to ride that wave," Benjamin Case, an assistant professor at Arizona State University, told AFP.

Harris, he says, "knows the more people are thinking about that issue, if they associate Democrats with the issue, if they associate her with the issue, it can only help her."

Women, who vote in greater numbers than men in the United States, strongly favor Harris over Trump.

- Key in Arizona? -

The stakes are particularly high in Arizona, which could easily swing either way come November. President Joe Biden won the southwestern state by a whisker in 2020.

Currently, abortion is banned in Arizona after 15 weeks of pregnancy, but a citizen-led ballot measure aims to restore access until fetal viability, around 24 weeks.

Democrats hope the issue will drive voter turnout and work in their favor for the presidential vote too.

"When you're talking about such an incredibly close state like Arizona, anything could make a difference," said Klar.

In five states, including New York, Colorado, and battleground state Nevada, voters will decide whether to strengthen protections for abortion, even though it is already legal in those places.

But in the other five states, the referendums could have more radical effects -- overturning bans or extending the window during which pregnant people can access the procedure.

- No easy answers -

In Florida, the third most populous state, health care providers are currently permitted to perform abortions only up to six weeks into pregnancy -- often before many women even realize they are pregnant.

"Amendment 4" aims to restore the right to abortion until fetal viability, a massive step for millions of women in the Sunshine State.

"I would not be shocked if every single abortion rights vote passed," said Case, who studies these types of initiatives.

Since 2022, every time the issue has been put to a direct vote, the right to abortion has prevailed -- even in conservative states like Kansas and Kentucky.

But the overall impact on the general election could be more "complicated," Case cautioned.

The economy and immigration are still ranked as higher priorities for voters than abortion, according to polls.

Being able to protect abortion rights through a referendum could also "free" some voters -- especially those disillusioned by the Democrats' stance on issues like Gaza -- who might then feel less compelled to support the party in the White House race, he said.

"I'm not convinced that this is something that the Democrats can sit back and say we can relax, because the abortion vote will carry us," he concluded.

U.Sparacello--IM